Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 25 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
OG
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 16 games
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 13 games
Phoenix
xNova · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
MikSa` · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 10 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 10 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
483 picks · 449 bans
Tiny
480 picks · 562 bans
Ringmaster
449 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
353 picks · 706 bans
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 486 bans
Ancient Apparition
309 picks · 722 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 252 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 91 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 28%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
Zero Tenacity 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
Phantom AssassinShad
Queen of PainStojkov
InvokerStormstormer
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Death ProphetMikSa`
RubickPablo
WarlockKidaro
UndyingLeBronDota
EarthshakerDaze
Game 2prediction missed32:42
Zero Tenacity 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:13:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNande
Dragon KnightStormstormer
PuckStojkov
UndyingMikSa`
EnigmaNefrit
KunkkaShad
RingmasterLeBronDota
Dark WillowDaze
TuskPablo
SilencerKidaro
Game 3prediction correct13:24
Zero Tenacity 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNande
UrsaShad
SlardarNefrit
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Ember SpiritStojkov
UndyingMikSa`
RubickPablo
Shadow ShamanKidaro
Naga SirenLeBronDota
Keeper of the LightDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3