FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
Warlock
Se · 36 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 29 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 29 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 27 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 37 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 36 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 869 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 383 bans
Dragon Knight
476 picks · 633 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 590 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 825 bans
Ember Spirit
357 picks · 576 bans
Mars
346 picks · 483 bans
Gyrocopter
344 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total61% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Zero Tenacity 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKami
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
EnigmaNefrit
BrewmasterPalantimos
TinyWorick
HuskarCopy
JakiroMoOz
HoodwinkEkki
Skywrath MagedEsire
Undyingaik
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Zero Tenacity 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKami
ClinkzDarkLord^
BristlebackNefrit
SlardarCopy
TinyWorick
UnderlordPalantimos
WindrangerdEsire
Undyingaik
DisruptorMoOz
HoodwinkEkki
Game 3prediction missed20:39
Zero Tenacity 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 52:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightKami
PuckCopy
BrewmasterNefrit
ClinkzDarkLord^
Ember SpiritWorick
UnderlordPalantimos
Skywrath MagedEsire
HoodwinkEkki
Ancient ApparitionMoOz
Warlockaik
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3