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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 34 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 29 games
59%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
63%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 36 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
532 picks · 866 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 382 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 637 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 591 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 811 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 564 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 575 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 487 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:26
Zero Tenacity 59%Pipsqueak+4 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
49% · 451 game48% · 396 games
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
55% · 279 games55% · 305 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Puck
PuckWorick
47% · 321 game52% · 383 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
46% · 326 games52% · 321 game
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
47% · 57 games45% · 29 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed18:27
Zero Tenacity 60%Pipsqueak+4 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKami
48% · 354 games47% · 284 games
BeastmasterCopy
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerWorick
52% · 94 games60% · 53 games
ClinkzDarkLord^
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
49% · 202 games49% · 346 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
42% · 291 game46% · 290 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
64% · 48 games57% · 16 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 68%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2