PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 41 game
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 40 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 34 games
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
Pipsqueak+4
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 47 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 46 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 41 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 33 games
Tusk
Ekki · 33 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 31 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 29 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
612 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 566 bans
Tusk
440 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
438 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1038 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 675 bans
Mars
373 picks · 599 bans
Shadow Fiend
357 picks · 938 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:15
Zero Tenacity 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezKami
BeastmasterLowskill
BristlebackNefrit
MarsMalik
Sand KingWorick
Viperряф^^
HoodwinkdEsire
Warlockaik
DazzleMoOz
TuskEkki
Game 2prediction correct40:22
Zero Tenacity 52%Pipsqueak+4 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
Templar AssassinLowskill
BristlebackNefrit
UnderlordMalik
Ember SpiritWorick
Sand Kingряф^^
PhoenixMoOz
Jakiroaik
Shadow ShamandEsire
WarlockEkki
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2