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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 39 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 27 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
54%

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 26 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 22 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 573 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 412 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 406 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 516 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
448 picks · 222 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 894 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:26
Zero Tenacity 47%Power Rangers 53%
The model gave 53% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
50% · 214 games51% · 47 games
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Doom
DoomNefrit
46% · 90 games49% · 331 game
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
52% · 129 games52% · 92 games
Vipernicky`cool
Viper
Lich
LichMoOz
39% · 10 games52% · 125 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
51% · 183 games47% · 31 game
IoImmersion
Io
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Zero Tenacity 46%Power Rangers 54%
The model gave 54% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKami
49% · 91 game46% · 128 games
MuertaTA2000
Muerta
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
51% · 118 games50% · 219 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyWorick
49% · 352 games51% · 134 games
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Underlord
Lich
LichMoOz
49% · 19 games51% · 85 games
RubickImmersion
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
49% · 87 games55% · 101 game
ChenHduo
Chen
Game 3prediction missed39:27
Zero Tenacity 48%Power Rangers 52%
The model gave 52% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKami
45% · 156 games50% · 291 game
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerWorick
50% · 67 games54% · 37 games
Death Prophetnicky`cool
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
44% · 152 games55% · 179 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
48% · 135 games56% · 41 game
IoImmersion
Io
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
47% · 203 games52% · 165 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 54%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3