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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 35 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
48%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 23 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 22 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dEsire · 21 game
62%

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 17 games
18%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
8%
Techies
Techies
Gothic- · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
18%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
460 picks · 280 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 455 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
302 picks · 122 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 128 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
283 picks · 257 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 290 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 408 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
270 picks · 391 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 27%
Hero pool strength65% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total90% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:39
Zero Tenacity 76%PuckChamp 24%
The model gave 76% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 53:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
48% · 194 games55% · 187 games
LifestealerYuragi
Lifestealer
Snapfire
Snapfireerase
47% · 324 games60% · 483 games
Ember Spiritgbc
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
52% · 421 game46% · 465 games
Dragon Knightkrol9ash
Dragon Knight
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHduo
50% · 51 game47% · 203 games
TechiesGothic-
Techies
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
48% · 599 games48% · 251 game
EnchantressHyugadoto
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct27:16
Zero Tenacity 74%PuckChamp 26%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
52% · 91 game58% · 115 games
ClinkzYuragi
Clinkz
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyererase
43% · 3 games50% · 120 games
Dark Seerkrol9ash
Dark Seer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
48% · 223 games48% · 304 games
Dragon Knightgbc
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkslimeyao
52% · 544 games47% · 306 games
WindrangerGothic-
Windranger
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
47% · 272 games49% · 288 games
BaneHyugadoto
Bane
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Zero Tenacity 78%PuckChamp 22%
The model gave 78% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 19:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangernesfeer
48% · 101 game46% · 290 games
WindrangerYuragi
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
50% · 138 games48% · 329 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
58% · 583 games48% · 198 games
Dragon Knightkrol9ash
Dragon Knight
Ringmaster
Ringmasterslimeyao
50% · 430 games50% · 577 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneHduo
54% · 339 games49% · 197 games
DisruptorHyugadoto
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 90%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3