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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 32 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%

Quantum Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fezor · 12 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
45%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 10 games
40%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 10 games
30%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 9 games
11%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 794 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
452 picks · 328 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 705 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
417 picks · 752 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 401 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 892 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
399 picks · 1075 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 532 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Zero Tenacity 66%Quantum Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRetsu
42% · 147 games48% · 261 game
Dragon KnightLukas
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
53% · 152 games31% · 15 games
MeepoRvze
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
55% · 188 games46% · 75 games
Night StalkerAnkou
Night Stalker
Tinker
TinkerLeBronDota
55% · 47 games61% · 91 game
WarlockFezor
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterPablo
49% · 31 game46% · 123 games
Shadow Demonkolya_kaBAN68
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct38:4
Zero Tenacity 63%Quantum Team 37%
The model gave 63% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRetsu
49% · 293 games46% · 97 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Puck
PuckStojkov
54% · 162 games50% · 177 games
Storm SpiritRvze
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
47% · 215 games48% · 229 games
BristlebackAnkou
Bristleback
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
46% · 41 game56% · 75 games
Keeper of the Lightkolya_kaBAN68
Keeper of the Light
Ringmaster
RingmasterPablo
51% · 31 game53% · 164 games
Crystal MaidenFezor
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct28:14
Zero Tenacity 62%Quantum Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyRetsu
46% · 272 games48% · 195 games
Phantom AssassinLukas
Phantom Assassin
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
44% · 83 games57% · 131 game
EarthshakerRvze
Earthshaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
53% · 116 games52% · 187 games
Dark SeerAnkou
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPablo
56% · 63 games52% · 136 games
Night Stalkerkolya_kaBAN68
Night Stalker
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
43% · 167 games52% · 52 games
Ancient ApparitionFezor
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3