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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
27%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 26 games
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 16 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fezor · 12 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
20%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 9 games
22%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 618 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 813 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 539 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 816 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 317 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
349 picks · 400 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Zero Tenacity 55%Quantum Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
50% · 151 game48% · 112 games
SvenLukas
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaMirage
50% · 69 games43% · 73 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
53% · 98 games51% · 96 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLeBronDota
59% · 80 games43% · 117 games
Rubickemptiness
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorPablo
51% · 45 games54% · 45 games
UndyingMary_y
Undying
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Zero Tenacity 57%Quantum Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNande
59% · 110 games45% · 100 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
45% · 169 games59% · 61 game
RikiAinkrad
Riki
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
46% · 305 games49% · 183 games
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
Marci
MarciLeBronDota
43% · 98 games55% · 239 games
Terrorbladeemptiness
Terrorblade
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPablo
56% · 184 games44% · 283 games
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct41:31
Zero Tenacity 56%Quantum Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:24:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
45% · 227 games47% · 177 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Slardar
SlardarMirage
38% · 57 games47% · 47 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
56% · 150 games52% · 158 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPablo
48% · 243 games57% · 88 games
Naga SirenMary_y
Naga Siren
Marci
MarciLeBronDota
52% · 85 games52% · 292 games
Batrideremptiness
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3