PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RSRog Starloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 24 games
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Disruptor
Se · 22 games
Rog Star
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
407 picks · 368 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 188 bans
Puck
347 picks · 885 bans
Pugna
308 picks · 354 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 243 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 807 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 691 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 73%Rog Star 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 73%Rog Star 27%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 73%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2