?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 27 games
30%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 26 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 633 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
483 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
398 picks · 842 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 558 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
371 picks · 430 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 325 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 830 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:52
Zero Tenacity 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
45% · 172 games50% · 105 games
LinaShigetsu
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
49% · 295 games47% · 388 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNefrit
51% · 64 games41% · 29 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
52% · 131 game50% · 269 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
50% · 244 games60% · 115 games
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct30:43
Zero Tenacity 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
57% · 283 games47% · 291 game
GyrocopterShigetsu
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
50% · 164 games47% · 182 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Sven
SvenNande
55% · 149 games54% · 281 game
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerLeBronDota
42% · 60 games48% · 38 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Tusk
TuskPablo
47% · 364 games49% · 228 games
Shadow DemonHduo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 54%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2