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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 29 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 24 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 23 games
39%

Runa Team

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 33 games
70%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 32 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 31 game
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 25 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
427 picks · 397 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
403 picks · 205 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 897 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
284 picks · 139 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 673 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 7
Model total76% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:18
Zero Tenacity 36%Runa Team 64%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback423
57% · 459 games49% · 217 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMirage
50% · 353 games47% · 315 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Lycan
LycanNefrit
52% · 162 games51% · 341 game
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireJeezy
48% · 236 games44% · 233 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleSe
47% · 80 games54% · 184 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct4:20
Zero Tenacity 32%Runa Team 68%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 19:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
43% · 132 games55% · 143 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Marci
Marci423
41% · 120 games53% · 120 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterNefrit
52% · 95 games56% · 178 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
52% · 211 games63% · 126 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Warlock
WarlockSe
42% · 194 games44% · 185 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 76%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2