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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 46 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 41 game
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 30 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
64%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
52%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
749 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 292 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 263 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1184 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 483 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 714 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:45
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 56:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
50% · 80 games45% · 31 game
Juggernaut7jesu
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckWorick
53% · 164 games50% · 361 game
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawNefrit
57% · 92 games49% · 162 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Tusk
TuskdEsire
42% · 170 games
Dazzle
DazzleSe
57% · 48 games
Game 2prediction correct34:32
Zero Tenacity 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 55:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKami
50% · 126 games57% · 125 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWorick
43% · 138 games53% · 246 games
Dragon Knight7jesu
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 51 game53% · 126 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
46% · 168 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
41% · 14 games
Game 3prediction missed21:35
Zero Tenacity 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
37% · 190 games55% · 54 games
Juggernaut7jesu
Juggernaut
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKami
61% · 26 games51% · 394 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
54% · 177 games51% · 253 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
48% · 175 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemondEsire
46% · 133 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 82%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3