DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The WarriorsQwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 25 games
Banesignature
MoOz · 24 games
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 23 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 22 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 22 games
Rubick
raregods · 21 game
Undyingsignature
MikSa` · 19 games
The WarriorsQ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
438 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 503 bans
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 515 bans
Windranger
276 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:36
Zero Tenacity 64%The WarriorsQ 36%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:10:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangernesfeer
Earth SpiritKatsura
BeastmasterNefrit
DoomKami
Pangoliererase
RingmasterKrinzhik
Dark Willowraregods
BaneJANTER
Witch DoctorHduo
Game 2prediction missed28:36
Zero Tenacity 65%The WarriorsQ 35%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by The WarriorsQ in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keznesfeer
TidehunterKami
Storm Spiriterase
Dragon KnightKatsura
BrewmasterNefrit
Dark WillowKrinzhik
Bounty Hunterraregods
Witch DoctorJANTER
DazzleHduo
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 75%The WarriorsQ 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by The WarriorsQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 75%
Series resultThe WarriorsQ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3