DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Timebombloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 32 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
Tusk
yamich · 25 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 25 games
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
Timebomb
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 646 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 683 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 88%Timebomb 12%
The model gave 88% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 88%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1