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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
43%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 19 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Pablo · 19 games
58%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
37%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 16 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
Fernans · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 13 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 12 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
375 picks · 218 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
358 picks · 350 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 505 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 693 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 859 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
303 picks · 627 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total50% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
Zero Tenacity 48%TNL DOTA 52%
The model gave 52% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
little data56% · 93 games
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
49% · 126 games47% · 29 games
Huskardualrazee
Huskar
Invoker
InvokerMirage
44% · 82 games51% · 61 game
DazzleNorma
Dazzle
Warlock
WarlockSe
42% · 96 games59% · 99 games
Bounty HunterFernans
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
47% · 122 games55% · 144 games
Chenflacko
Chen
Game 2prediction correct14:37
Zero Tenacity 46%TNL DOTA 54%
The model gave 54% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerMirage
45% · 199 games49% · 91 game
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Slark
SlarkNande
46% · 61 game56% · 201 game
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 72 games55% · 47 games
LycanNorma
Lycan
Snapfire
Snapfireyamich
43% · 107 games61% · 103 games
Naga Sirenflacko
Naga Siren
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
44% · 107 games57% · 104 games
Shadow ShamanFernans
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct14:53
Zero Tenacity 47%TNL DOTA 53%
The model gave 53% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
46% · 299 games54% · 256 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Invoker
InvokerMirage
50% · 203 games59% · 105 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeNefrit
42% · 146 games48% · 207 games
DawnbreakerNorma
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
Batrideryamich
53% · 415 games53% · 274 games
Shadow Shamanflacko
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerSe
51% · 112 games47% · 333 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 50%
Series resultTNL DOTA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3