DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
Warlock
Se · 36 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 30 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 30 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kami · 30 games
Virtus.pro
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
609 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 644 bans
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 650 bans
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 956 bans
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 653 bans
Mars
392 picks · 532 bans
Warlock
380 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:41
Zero Tenacity 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
WindrangerTimado
LargoNefrit
PuckAbed
Ember SpiritWorick
UnderlordSabeRLight-
RubickdEsire
TuskHellscream
WarlockMoOz
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction missed32:13
Zero Tenacity 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritWorick
HuskarAbed
LargoNefrit
TinyHellscream
WarlockMoOz
JakiroFly
Dark WillowdEsire
WindrangerTimado
Game 3prediction missed23:10
Zero Tenacity 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNefrit
SlardarAbed
AbaddonKami
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritWorick
OmniknightTimado
JakiroMoOz
WarlockFly
Dark WillowdEsire
Skywrath MageHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3