CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 21 game
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 19 games
Pucksignature
RCY · 19 games
Chensignature
Speeed · 17 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 634 bans
Ringmaster
488 picks · 248 bans
Jakiro
463 picks · 424 bans
Terrorblade
399 picks · 850 bans
Shadow Shaman
378 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 562 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 327 bans
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
Zero Tenacity 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMirage
TidehunterFayde
Phantom AssassinNande
UrsaYamSun
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
PangolierRCY
WarlockLeBronDota
ChenSpeeed
Shadow ShamanPablo
BatriderBignum
Game 2prediction missed37:10
Zero Tenacity 39%Wildcard Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNande
Troll WarlordYamSun
BatriderMirage
PangolierRCY
SlardarNefrit
DoomFayde
RubickPablo
WarlockSpeeed
SilencerLeBronDota
Shadow ShamanBignum
Game 3prediction missed30:14
Zero Tenacity 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirage
KunkkaYamSun
BeastmasterNande
Death ProphetFayde
OmniknightNefrit
RikiRCY
Dark WillowPablo
AxeBignum
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
RingmasterSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3