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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Y5 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 31 game
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%

Y5 Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 4 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 791 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 330 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
440 picks · 710 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
414 picks · 744 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
412 picks · 403 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 895 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
400 picks · 1063 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Y5 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Zero Tenacity 67%Y5 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Y5 Esports in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRetsu
60% · 100 games47% · 287 games
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
47% · 77 games
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
65% · 13 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
43% · 63 games
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
50% · 34 games
Game 2prediction correct48:30
Zero Tenacity 62%Y5 Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
65% · 47 games48% · 205 games
BristlebackDominic
Bristleback
Puck
PuckStojkov
56% · 46 games
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNefrit
54% · 76 games
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
34% · 28 games
Ringmaster
RingmasterPablo
50% · 8 games
Game 3prediction correct43:13
Zero Tenacity 60%Y5 Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinRetsu
65% · 47 games52% · 141 game
BristlebackDominic
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
24% · 17 games
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
50% · 22 games
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
54% · 37 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPablo
50% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3