European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 46 games
Disruptor
Se · 43 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 26 games
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 25 games
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 32 games
Tusk
mrls · 30 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 27 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
745 picks · 330 bans
Jakiro
603 picks · 584 bans
Hoodwink
600 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
588 picks · 742 bans
Tusk
552 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 524 bans
Centaur Warrunner
515 picks · 609 bans
Mars
506 picks · 754 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total61% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Game 3prediction missed
Zero Tenacity 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 61%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3