Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
ZeroTwoloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Assaultwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
Linaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Poloson · 2 games
Phantom Assassin
Dreamocel · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Assault
Shadow Shaman
JoHnNy · 2 games
Tusk
rayy · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Gy · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
Gy · 1 game
Clockwerk
rayy · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Gy · 1 game
Disruptor
rayy · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
JoHnNy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
53 picks · 91 bans
Puck
42 picks · 104 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
37 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
32 picks · 37 bans
Monkey King
29 picks · 60 bans
Undying
28 picks · 53 bans
Mirana
27 picks · 33 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% ZeroTwo
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Assault
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:33
ZeroTwo 47%Assault 53%
The model gave 53% on Assault — the game was taken by Assault in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingDreamocel
Centaur WarrunnerGy
BatriderCHYuan
MiranaJoHnNy
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
Tuskrayy
RubickinYourdreaM
Witch DoctorPoloson
Game 2prediction correct37:47
ZeroTwo 48%Assault 52%
The model gave 52% on Assault — the game was taken by Assault in 1:05:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerCHYuan
PhoenixJoHnNy
RikiDreamocel
MarsGy
Dark WillowinYourdreaM
Disruptorrayy
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
GrimstrokePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteAssault · 57%
Series resultAssault 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2