Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ZeroTwowin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 4 games
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
127 picks · 234 bans
Puck
125 picks · 287 bans
Earth Spirit
112 picks · 93 bans
Void Spirit
106 picks · 159 bans
Phoenix
100 picks · 104 bans
Nyx Assassin
81 picks · 283 bans
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
Rubick
79 picks · 37 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% ZeroTwo
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
ZeroTwo 52%Lilgun 48%
The model gave 52% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 34:41.
Game 2prediction correct34:10
ZeroTwo 52%Lilgun 48%
The model gave 52% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 30:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteZeroTwo · 52%
Series resultZeroTwo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2