Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zorka Gamingwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zorka Gaming
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Tiny
OneJey · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
klassnokruto · 1 game
Pudge
dizzying · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
klassnokruto · 1 game
YNT
Sand King
Dominic · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
667 picks · 521 bans
Marci
469 picks · 717 bans
Dawnbreaker
454 picks · 618 bans
Puck
443 picks · 906 bans
Winter Wyvern
346 picks · 416 bans
Zeus
299 picks · 391 bans
Razor
280 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
278 picks · 457 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength65% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:45
Zorka Gaming 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 52:45.
Game 2prediction missed28:5
Zorka Gaming 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 19:50.
Game 3prediction missed19:5
Zorka Gaming 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 51%
Series resultZorka Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3