FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#35 in the world · win 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
APArena Proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Arena Pro ban
83%50%
100 Thieves · 14 mapsedge 100 Thieves +33%Arena Pro · 0 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
53%50%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Arena Pro · 0 maps
NukeArena Pro ban
57%50%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Arena Pro · 0 maps
Mirage100 Thieves pick
54%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Arena Pro · 0 maps
InfernoArena Pro pick
50%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Arena Pro · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
55%50%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%Arena Pro · 0 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
57%50%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Arena Pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanArena Pro remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Mirage
4. PickArena Pro take Inferno
5. BanArena Pro remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
100 Thieves 51%Arena Pro 49%
The model gave 51% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
100 Thieves 85%Arena Pro 15%
The model gave 85% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 86%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2