Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
50%67%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge Astralis +17%Astralis · 14 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
46%36%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%Astralis · 7 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
69%22%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +47%Astralis · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%Astralis · 6 maps
Mirage100 Thieves pick
67%43%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +24%Astralis · 3 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
60%67%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge Astralis +7%Astralis · 8 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
45%40%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%Astralis · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanAstralis remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Mirage
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Anubis
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
100 Thieves 58%Astralis 42%
The model gave 58% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
100 Thieves 31%Astralis 69%
The model gave 69% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
100 Thieves 60%Astralis 40%
The model gave 60% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 75%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3