Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%50%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +6%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
NukeEternal 21 pick
44%50%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge Eternal 21 +6%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
50%50%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
MirageEternal 21 ban
63%50%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
Dust2Eternal 21 ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
Overpass100 Thieves ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Eternal 21 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanEternal 21 remove Mirage
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickEternal 21 take Nuke
5. BanEternal 21 remove Dust2
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
100 Thieves 42%Eternal 21 58%
The model gave 58% on Eternal 21 — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
100 Thieves 53%Eternal 21 47%
The model gave 53% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 79%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2