IEM Beijing 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#31 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#78 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
74%50%
100 Thieves · 15 mapsedge 100 Thieves +24%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
62%55%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
54%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%45%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +22%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
45%50%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
45%33%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +12%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%63%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +13%Eternal Fire · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (67% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
100 Thieves 54%Eternal Fire 46%
The model gave 54% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
100 Thieves 76%Eternal Fire 24%
The model gave 76% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
100 Thieves 71%Eternal Fire 29%
The model gave 71% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 67%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3