Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JiJieHao#47 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisJiJieHao ban
50%57%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge JiJieHao +7%JiJieHao · 10 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
75%33%
100 Thieves · 12 mapsedge 100 Thieves +42%JiJieHao · 8 maps
MirageJiJieHao pick
62%73%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge JiJieHao +11%JiJieHao · 11 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
53%55%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsnearly even -2%JiJieHao · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%56%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +2%JiJieHao · 5 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
50%50%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsnearly even +0%JiJieHao · 0 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%45%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%JiJieHao · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickJiJieHao take Mirage
5. BanJiJieHao remove Anubis
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (58% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
100 Thieves 52%JiJieHao 48%
The model gave 52% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
100 Thieves 87%JiJieHao 13%
The model gave 87% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 54%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2