Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLiquid pick
50%69%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge Liquid +19%Liquid · 12 maps
NukeLiquid ban
50%56%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge Liquid +6%Liquid · 12 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
76%45%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsedge 100 Thieves +31%Liquid · 7 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
62%73%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge Liquid +11%Liquid · 7 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
57%64%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge Liquid +7%Liquid · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%78%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge Liquid +20%Liquid · 5 maps
AncientLiquid ban
53%40%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%Liquid · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanLiquid remove Ancient
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickLiquid take Anubis
5. BanLiquid remove Nuke
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (58% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:0
100 Thieves 81%Liquid 19%
The model gave 81% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
100 Thieves 26%Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
100 Thieves 38%Liquid 62%
The model gave 63% on Liquid — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 57%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3