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Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#87 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
50%55%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 16 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%46%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Phantom · 9 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
69%55%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +14%Phantom · 7 maps
Inferno100 Thieves ban
56%67%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge Phantom +11%Phantom · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
45%44%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Phantom · 5 maps
MiragePhantom ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%Phantom · 6 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%33%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%Phantom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanPhantom remove Mirage
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Anubis
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
100 Thieves 51%Phantom 49%
The model gave 51% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
100 Thieves 63%Phantom 37%
The model gave 63% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
100 Thieves 38%Phantom 62%
The model gave 62% on Phantom — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 73%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3