Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
59%50%
100 Thieves · 13 mapsedge 100 Thieves +9%SadFamous · 0 maps
Dust2SadFamous ban
75%50%
100 Thieves · 12 mapsedge 100 Thieves +25%SadFamous · 0 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
54%50%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsnearly even +4%SadFamous · 0 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
58%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge 100 Thieves +8%SadFamous · 0 maps
NukeSadFamous pick
42%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge SadFamous +8%SadFamous · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
38%50%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge SadFamous +12%SadFamous · 0 maps
OverpassSadFamous ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%SadFamous · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanSadFamous remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickSadFamous take Nuke
5. BanSadFamous remove Overpass
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
100 Thieves 39%SadFamous 61%
The model gave 61% on SadFamous — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
100 Thieves 77%SadFamous 23%
The model gave 77% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 85%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2