BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
80%67%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%Spirit · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%78%
100 Thieves · 14 mapsedge Spirit +22%Spirit · 5 maps
MirageSpirit pick
58%83%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 8 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
43%67%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge Spirit +24%Spirit · 2 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
53%50%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Spirit · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
50%57%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge Spirit +7%Spirit · 3 maps
OverpassSpirit ban
60%29%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +31%Spirit · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickSpirit take Mirage
5. BanSpirit remove Overpass
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (56% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
100 Thieves 46%Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
100 Thieves 20%Spirit 80%
The model gave 80% on Spirit — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction missed0:13
100 Thieves 67%Spirit 33%
The model gave 67% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 91%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3