Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSTATE pick
50%71%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge STATE +21%STATE · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%43%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%STATE · 3 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
56%57%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsnearly even -1%STATE · 3 maps
MirageSTATE ban
63%50%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%STATE · 2 maps
Overpass100 Thieves ban
60%43%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +17%STATE · 3 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%60%
100 Thieves · 1 mapnearly even +0%STATE · 1 map
Dust2STATE ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%STATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Mirage
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (56% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
100 Thieves 60%STATE 40%
The model gave 60% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by STATE.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
100 Thieves 65%STATE 35%
The model gave 65% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 65%
Series resultSTATE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2