Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMOUZ ban
45%42%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ · 8 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
33%71%
GamerLegion · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +38%MOUZ · 10 maps
Dust2GamerLegion ban
50%69%
GamerLegion · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +19%MOUZ · 9 maps
MirageGamerLegion ban
50%62%
GamerLegion · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +12%MOUZ · 9 maps
InfernoGamerLegion pick
50%50%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ · 6 maps
OverpassMOUZ ban
60%67%
GamerLegion · 1 mapedge MOUZ +7%MOUZ · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
3. PickGamerLegion take Inferno
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Overpass
6. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
GamerLegion 36%MOUZ 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Ancientprediction correct22:19
GamerLegion 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
GamerLegion 17%MOUZ 83%
The model gave 83% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 80%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3