Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard#39 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
67%43%
HOTU · 20 mapsedge HOTU +24%Wildcard · 3 maps
CacheHOTU pick
64%50%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +14%Wildcard · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
56%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +6%Wildcard · 0 maps
MirageHOTU ban
57%33%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +24%Wildcard · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%33%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +31%Wildcard · 2 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
73%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +23%Wildcard · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%44%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge HOTU +6%Wildcard · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickWildcard take Dust2
5. BanWildcard remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (64% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
HOTU 70%Wildcard 30%
The model gave 70% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
HOTU 66%Wildcard 34%
The model gave 66% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 58%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2