Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
EYEBALLERS#42 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEYEBALLERS pick
67%55%
EYEBALLERS · 8 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +12%Nemesis · 16 maps
InfernoNemesis ban
50%46%
EYEBALLERS · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Nemesis · 9 maps
MirageEYEBALLERS ban
33%57%
EYEBALLERS · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +24%Nemesis · 10 maps
Dust2Nemesis pick
33%67%
EYEBALLERS · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +34%Nemesis · 11 maps
NukeEYEBALLERS ban
33%67%
EYEBALLERS · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +34%Nemesis · 8 maps
CacheNemesis ban
29%43%
EYEBALLERS · 3 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%38%
EYEBALLERS · 0 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +12%Nemesis · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEYEBALLERS remove Nuke
2. BanNemesis remove Cache
3. PickEYEBALLERS take Ancient
4. PickNemesis take Dust2
5. BanNemesis remove Inferno
6. BanEYEBALLERS remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
EYEBALLERS 18%Nemesis 82%
The model gave 82% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
EYEBALLERS 38%Nemesis 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 59%
Series resultNemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2