Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#32 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BBL#62 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BBL ban
67%50%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%BBL · 0 maps
Nuke100 Thieves pick
54%33%
100 Thieves · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +21%BBL · 2 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
45%50%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge BBL +5%BBL · 0 maps
InfernoBBL pick
44%50%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsedge BBL +6%BBL · 2 maps
AncientBBL ban
44%40%
100 Thieves · 5 mapsnearly even +4%BBL · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
63%50%
100 Thieves · 4 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%BBL · 2 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%40%
100 Thieves · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%BBL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. Pick100 Thieves take Nuke
4. PickBBL take Inferno
5. BanBBL remove Ancient
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
100 Thieves 58%BBL 42%
The model gave 58% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by BBL.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
100 Thieves 42%BBL 58%
The model gave 58% on BBL — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
100 Thieves 70%BBL 30%
The model gave 70% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 65%
Series resultBBL 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3