Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
INFINITE#56 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
59%50%
1win · 23 mapsedge 1win +9%INFINITE · 10 maps
MirageINFINITE pick
60%57%
1win · 11 mapsnearly even +3%INFINITE · 17 maps
Ancient1win ban
60%42%
1win · 16 mapsedge 1win +18%INFINITE · 8 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
38%40%
1win · 12 mapsnearly even -2%INFINITE · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
62%50%
1win · 9 mapsedge 1win +12%INFINITE · 4 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
67%50%
1win · 5 mapsedge 1win +17%INFINITE · 6 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%40%
1win · 0 mapsedge 1win +10%INFINITE · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. Ban1win remove Ancient
DeciderCache (62% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
1win 62%INFINITE 38%
The model gave 62% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
1win 50%INFINITE 50%
The model gave 50% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
1win 68%INFINITE 32%
The model gave 68% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 59%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3