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Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EYEBALLERS#42 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoEYEBALLERS pick
44%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +6%EYEBALLERS · 6 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%67%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +17%EYEBALLERS · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
29%33%
Wildcard · 3 mapsnearly even -4%EYEBALLERS · 5 maps
Dust2Wildcard pick
43%29%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +14%EYEBALLERS · 3 maps
CacheEYEBALLERS ban
40%25%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +15%EYEBALLERS · 4 maps
NukeEYEBALLERS ban
33%33%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%EYEBALLERS · 2 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
50%57%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +7%EYEBALLERS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanEYEBALLERS remove Nuke
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickEYEBALLERS take Inferno
5. BanEYEBALLERS remove Cache
6. BanWildcard remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (29% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Wildcard 53%EYEBALLERS 47%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard — the map was taken by EYEBALLERS.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
Wildcard 42%EYEBALLERS 58%
The model gave 58% on EYEBALLERS — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
Wildcard 67%EYEBALLERS 33%
The model gave 67% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 52%
Series resultWildcard 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3