Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
K27#34 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
67%71%
HEROIC · 8 mapsnearly even -4%K27 · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%55%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +12%K27 · 16 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
45%52%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 17 maps
NukeK27 ban
58%37%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +21%K27 · 15 maps
Dust2HEROIC pick
69%57%
HEROIC · 12 mapsedge HEROIC +12%K27 · 10 maps
InfernoK27 ban
67%50%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +17%K27 · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%58%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge K27 +8%K27 · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. BanHEROIC remove Cache
DeciderAncient (67% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
HEROIC 65%K27 35%
The model gave 65% on HEROIC — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
HEROIC 40%K27 60%
The model gave 60% on K27 — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
HEROIC 71%K27 29%
The model gave 71% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 66%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3