Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#48 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
100 Thieves#32 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
54%67%
Acend · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%100 Thieves · 11 maps
InfernoAcend pick
61%50%
Acend · 14 mapsedge Acend +11%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
60%40%
Acend · 11 mapsedge Acend +20%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%63%
Acend · 12 mapsedge 100 Thieves +19%100 Thieves · 4 maps
AnubisAcend ban
44%45%
Acend · 5 mapsnearly even -1%100 Thieves · 7 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%50%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even +0%100 Thieves · 10 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
33%50%
Acend · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +17%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
3. PickAcend take Inferno
4. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
6. BanAcend remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (44% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Acend 34%100 Thieves 66%
The model gave 66% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Acend 72%100 Thieves 28%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 68%
Series result100 Thieves 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2