Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFINITE#56 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
43%59%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 10 mapsedge INFINITE +16%INFINITE · 18 maps
NukeNinjas in Pyjamas pick
68%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 15 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +28%INFINITE · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%38%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +15%INFINITE · 9 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
43%47%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 mapsnearly even -4%INFINITE · 11 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
55%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 7 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +5%INFINITE · 6 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
20%50%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 6 mapsedge INFINITE +30%INFINITE · 4 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
44%40%
Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 mapsnearly even +4%INFINITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
2. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
3. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Nuke
4. PickINFINITE take Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
6. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
DeciderAncient (53% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Ninjas in Pyjamas 67%INFINITE 33%
The model gave 67% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Ninjas in Pyjamas 32%INFINITE 68%
The model gave 68% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinjas in Pyjamas · 67%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2