Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#48 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HOTU#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHOTU pick
50%60%
BBL · 2 mapsedge HOTU +10%HOTU · 21 map
Dust2BBL ban
50%67%
BBL · 0 mapsedge HOTU +17%HOTU · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%61%
BBL · 2 mapsedge HOTU +11%HOTU · 14 maps
NukeBBL pick
44%67%
BBL · 5 mapsedge HOTU +23%HOTU · 11 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%63%
BBL · 2 mapsedge HOTU +13%HOTU · 12 maps
AnubisBBL ban
50%75%
BBL · 0 mapsedge HOTU +25%HOTU · 12 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
56%40%
BBL · 5 mapsedge BBL +16%HOTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickHOTU take Cache
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanBBL remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
BBL 23%HOTU 77%
The model gave 77% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
BBL 31%HOTU 69%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by BBL.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
BBL 40%HOTU 60%
The model gave 60% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 68%
Series resultHOTU 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3