Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO5
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:3series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
67%62%
HOTU · 20 mapsedge HOTU +5%Virtus.pro · 22 maps
CacheHOTU pick
62%58%
HOTU · 22 mapsnearly even +4%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
63%59%
HOTU · 12 mapsnearly even +4%Virtus.pro · 18 maps
NukeHOTU pick
63%57%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +6%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
AncientVirtus.pro pick
61%73%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge Virtus.pro +12%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
76%36%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +40%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%56%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +23%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. PickHOTU take Nuke
6. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
DeciderOverpass (33% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
HOTU 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
HOTU 87%Virtus.pro 13%
The model gave 87% on HOTU — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
HOTU 34%Virtus.pro 66%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3