CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSTATE pick
64%73%
STATE · 7 mapsedge BAKS +9%BAKS · 18 maps
NukeBAKS ban
55%46%
STATE · 7 mapsedge STATE +9%BAKS · 9 maps
AncientBAKS pick
42%70%
STATE · 8 mapsedge BAKS +28%BAKS · 6 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%41%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +9%BAKS · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%33%
STATE · 5 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 8 maps
MirageSTATE ban
33%56%
STATE · 5 mapsedge BAKS +23%BAKS · 5 maps
DefaultBAKS ban
67%50%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +17%BAKS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanBAKS remove Default
3. PickSTATE take Cache
4. PickBAKS take Ancient
5. BanBAKS remove Nuke
6. BanSTATE remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (33% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
STATE 67%BAKS 33%
The model gave 67% on STATE — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
STATE 61%BAKS 39%
The model gave 61% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
STATE 29%BAKS 71%
The model gave 71% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 67%
Series resultBAKS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3