CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
43%62%
Leo · 24 mapsedge Black Phoenix +19%Black Phoenix · 48 maps
NukeLeo pick
85%52%
Leo · 22 mapsedge Leo +33%Black Phoenix · 21 map
MirageLeo ban
36%45%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +9%Black Phoenix · 25 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
Leo · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
38%23%
Leo · 9 mapsedge Leo +15%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
45%33%
Leo · 18 mapsedge Leo +12%Black Phoenix · 2 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%64%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. BanLeo remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Leo 29%Black Phoenix 71%
The model gave 71% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Leo 85%Black Phoenix 15%
The model gave 85% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
Leo 50%Black Phoenix 50%
The model gave 50% on Leo — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 57%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3