StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
63%43%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge HOTU +20%Aurora · 10 maps
NukeHOTU ban
75%56%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +19%Aurora · 12 maps
AncientAurora ban
60%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +10%Aurora · 0 maps
AnubisAurora pick
71%73%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Aurora · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%40%
HOTU · 6 mapsedge HOTU +20%Aurora · 1 map
MirageAurora ban
63%57%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +6%Aurora · 3 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%67%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge Aurora +38%Aurora · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Anubis
5. BanAurora remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderCache (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
HOTU 72%Aurora 28%
The model gave 72% on HOTU — the map was taken by Aurora.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
HOTU 45%Aurora 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
HOTU 56%Aurora 44%
The model gave 56% on HOTU — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 84%
Series resultAurora 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3