Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
60%63%
Fortress · 1 mapnearly even -3%Inner Circle Academy · 15 maps
AncientFortress pick
57%54%
Fortress · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
43%42%
Fortress · 3 mapsnearly even +1%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
MirageFortress ban
29%60%
Fortress · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +31%Inner Circle Academy · 6 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
40%40%
Fortress · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AnubisFortress ban
40%67%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +27%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
29%50%
Fortress · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +21%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanFortress remove Anubis
DeciderCache (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Fortress 31%Inner Circle Academy 69%
The model gave 69% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
Fortress 23%Inner Circle Academy 77%
The model gave 77% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Fortress.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
Fortress 53%Inner Circle Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 66%
Series resultFortress 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3