BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ pick
36%67%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge MOUZ +31%MOUZ · 11 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
47%55%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge MOUZ +8%MOUZ · 7 maps
Dust2MOUZ ban
67%60%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +7%MOUZ · 6 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
56%55%
FOKUS · 5 mapsnearly even +1%MOUZ · 7 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
38%58%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +20%MOUZ · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%67%
FOKUS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ · 5 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
60%50%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +10%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ remove Cache
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
FOKUS 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on FOKUS — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
FOKUS 28%MOUZ 72%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 82%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2