BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
63%33%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge HOTU +30%Astralis · 5 maps
AncientAstralis pick
64%55%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +9%Astralis · 7 maps
NukeHOTU ban
73%36%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +37%Astralis · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%50%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +17%Astralis · 2 maps
MirageAstralis ban
63%57%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +6%Astralis · 3 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%29%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 3 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
71%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +21%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderCache (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed1:13
HOTU 69%Astralis 31%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
HOTU 81%Astralis 19%
The model gave 81% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
HOTU 60%Astralis 40%
The model gave 60% on HOTU — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 61%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3