NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
68%44%
GenOne · 43 mapsedge GenOne +24%BET-M · 5 maps
NukeBET-M pick
60%42%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +18%BET-M · 8 maps
AncientGenOne ban
43%33%
GenOne · 24 mapsedge GenOne +10%BET-M · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
53%33%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge GenOne +20%BET-M · 5 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
37%50%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge BET-M +13%BET-M · 0 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
57%50%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +7%BET-M · 0 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%55%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge BET-M +5%BET-M · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanBET-M remove Overpass
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickBET-M take Nuke
5. BanBET-M remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (53% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
GenOne 66%BET-M 34%
The model gave 66% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
GenOne 75%BET-M 25%
The model gave 75% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 62%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2